Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
